經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性的非對(duì)稱效應(yīng)、傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制與宏觀政策調(diào)控
中國經(jīng)濟(jì)問題
頁數(shù): 15 2024-03-20
摘要: 本文使用高維宏觀數(shù)據(jù)集構(gòu)建中國的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性指數(shù),基于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期視角評(píng)估經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的非對(duì)稱效應(yīng),通過反事實(shí)分析論證金融摩擦機(jī)制的重要作用,為理解經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性沖擊的非對(duì)稱效應(yīng)、傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制和政策應(yīng)對(duì)方式提供了重要依據(jù)。本文得到三個(gè)結(jié)論:第一,經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性對(duì)產(chǎn)出的影響具有經(jīng)濟(jì)周期非對(duì)稱性,經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性對(duì)實(shí)際GDP增長率產(chǎn)生了顯著的負(fù)面影響,經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期經(jīng)濟(jì)不確... (共15頁)