基于多主體仿真的大群體應(yīng)急決策風(fēng)險致因分析

摘要： 大群體應(yīng)急決策風(fēng)險來源眾多,且對決策的影響不容忽視。本文從個體因素和群體因素兩方面對大群體應(yīng)急決策風(fēng)險進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)識別,并將各風(fēng)險因素與兩類群體效應(yīng)(認(rèn)知沖突和關(guān)系沖突)進(jìn)行關(guān)聯(lián),建立大群體應(yīng)急決策風(fēng)險致因體系。在此基礎(chǔ)上,設(shè)置由個體認(rèn)可度、群體結(jié)構(gòu)、溝通方式、決策策略和外部影響組成的仿真變量,然后基于觀點動力學(xué)利用Netlogo工具建立大群體應(yīng)急決策風(fēng)險致因多主體仿真模型,最后通過案例模擬得出各風(fēng)險因素致因機理的一般規(guī)律。仿真結(jié)果表明:控制高認(rèn)可度決策主體的比例,增加聚集間交互,采取必要的預(yù)見性措施,對降低決策風(fēng)險,提高決策共識速度,應(yīng)對決策環(huán)境的高動態(tài)性具有積極作用。研究有助于掌握大群體應(yīng)急決策風(fēng)險因素的組成及其影響規(guī)律,為應(yīng)急決策的策略引導(dǎo)提供參考和借鑒。
There are many sources of risk in large group emergency decision-making, and their impacts on decision-making cannot be ignored. If these risks cannot be controlled effectively, they will become a new source of risk, further deteriorating the situation, and then may lead to poor rescue performance, or even rescue failure. The risks in large group emergency decision-making are systematically identified from the aspects of individual factors and group factors, and the relationship between each risk factor and two group effects is explored, namely cognitive conflict and relationship conflict, then a large group emergency decision-making risk-causing system is established. On this basis, the simulation variables consisting of individual acceptance, group structure, interaction mode, decision strategy and decision-making environment are set and the multi-agent simulation model of risk-causing for large group emergency decision-making is established based on opinion dynamics by using Netlogo tool. Finally, the general rules of the causal mechanisms of each risk factor are obtained by case simulation. The simulation results show that the fusion and integration of different information and perspectives is the key driving force of risk control for large group emergency decision-making with high complexity and uncertainty. It can effectively control the risk and ensure the efficiency of large group emergency decision-making after establishing the optimal decision-making group, increasing the participation and interaction scope of decision-makers, promoting more comprehensive information sharing, ensuring sufficient and efficient exchange of opinions, forming decision-making consensus with maximum efficiency, and maintaining a high predictability of the dynamics of external impacts in the decision-making environment. Decision conflict is taken as a representation of decision risk, and innovatively the research of large group emergency decision is intensified from the decision conflict direction to the decision risk direction, which is the expansion and integration of large group emergency decision research field, and helpful to grasp the composition of risk factors and their influencing rules in large groups emergency decision-making, and can provide reference and guidance for strategy selection in emergency decision-making.