考慮后悔與失望行為的應急方案選擇方法

摘要： 考慮到在應急管理問題中,當決策者需要進行應急方案選擇時,會存在兩類心理行為:后悔心理行為和失望心理行為,針對具有混合多指標信息的應急方案選擇問題提出了一種新方法。首先,計算應急方案關于傷亡人數(shù)、財產(chǎn)損失和社會影響等指標信息的效用值。然后,考慮到?jīng)Q策者的兩類心理行為的特征,為確定不同的應急方案的感知效用,分別提出計算方案后悔-欣喜值和失望-愉悅值的方法。進一步地,考慮到不同應急方案的投入成本不同,計算決策者關于不同方案的投入成本的感知效用。在此基礎上,根據(jù)不同應急方案的總體感知效用值,進行應急方案的排序或優(yōu)選。最后,通過實例驗證所提方法的可行性和有效性。
Considering that there are two kinds of psychological behaviors in emergency management when decision makers need to choose emergency plans. regret psychological behavior and disappointment psychological behavior, a new method for emergency plan selection with mixed information is proposed. Firstly, the utility value of emergency plan information about casualties, property losses and social impact is calculated.Then, considering the characteristics of two types of psychological behavior of decision makers, in order to determine the perceived utility of different emergency plans, the methods of calculating regret-rejoice value and disappointment-elation value are proposed respectively.In advance, considering the different input costs of different emergency plans, the perceived utility of decision makers about the input costs of different plans is calculated.On this basis, according to the overall perceived utility value of different emergency plans, emergency plans are ranked or optimized. Finally, an example is given to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.