基于隨機(jī)模擬和濾波分析的大群體決策方法

摘要： 基于決策者評價信息包含主觀成分與客觀成分的基本假設(shè),將隨機(jī)模擬與濾波分析方法相結(jié)合,提出隨機(jī)濾波決策方法分離主客觀成分,運(yùn)用大數(shù)定律分析以客觀成分均值作為方案排序標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的理論基礎(chǔ)與物理意義,論證該方法的收斂性及其在解決大群體決策問題中的優(yōu)勢.以經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)B(tài)分解為濾波方法構(gòu)建大群體隨機(jī)經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)B(tài)分解濾波決策方法,并運(yùn)用算例說明決策過程,以驗(yàn)證方法的合理性和有效性.
A random filtering decision-making method combining random simulation and filter analysis is proposed based on the basic assumption that each decision-maker's assessment information contains subjective and objective components.The mean value of objective component is used as ranking metrics, and the law of large numbers is employed to analyze its theoretical basis and physical significance. The convergence and advantages over other large group decision-making methods are also studied. The random empirical mode decomposition decision-making method is constructed, in which empirical mode decomposition is used as a filter method. An example is given to iaustrate the decision process, rationality and validity of the proposed method.